Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Tuesday, September 23rd, 2025:
PRODUCTION NOTES
My apologies for the extreme delay in getting this edition of the newsletter to you. As I was working on the newsletter overnight, I realized a lot was likely to happen this morning, so I decided to wait a bit and add the latest information on this rapidly evolving story.
On a completely unrelated note, it's always a struggle to get attention in the legacy press for this newsletter, so I appreciate all the attention it's received in recent days. More than 40 mentions at various outlets, and I have been doing a steady stream of radio interviews, ranging from WCCO Radio here in the Twin Cities to a radio station in Holland. And I have five more interviews today.
All of this is a reminder that if your radio talk show or podcast needs a guest or if you are a reporter in need of some comment on the industry, please keep me in mind. I can always be contacted at
THERE ARE SO MANY THINGS WE DON'T KNOW
While it's great that Jimmy Kimmel is returning to ABC tonight, that's about all we know for sure. The one thing that is clear is his return to late night television is nowhere near the end of this story.
So here are just a few of the things I will be watching for in the next few days and weeks:
1) What will Jimmy Kimmel say in this monologue tonight?
Unsourced Disney people are telling friendly press outlets that Kimmel will "address every issue" in Tuesday's monologue. My suspicion that will include a non-apology that sorta sounds like one, a lot of talk about freedom of speech, perhaps an admission that his jokes last week were "ill-timed" and he'll express hope everyone can learn from this and move on. There's also a chance he might apologize to the Kirk family "for any hurt he caused," although that would be more an effort to bring Sinclair stations back on board than anything else.
2) What will his monologue sound like in two weeks?
This is the big question. It's clear that no matter what Kimmel says, he is going to have a target on his back moving forward. Conservative groups will be carefully parsing every word in an effort to find something that can complain about. Everyone I have talked to expects Kimmel to say what he wants to say. But is that something ABC can live with in the long-term?
Even before last week, Kimmel had publicly been ambivalent about continuing with the show beyond the end of his current contract next year. So has this experience made him decide he is going to stay as long as he can, in part to push back against critics and champion free speech? Or does he announce on Tuesday that he won't be returning after the end of his contract, which gives him the cover to say what he wants, since ABC and his critics both know he'll be gone next May?
3) Will Nexstar air Jimmy Kimmel Live!?
The company just announced that it is also not planning to air Jimmy Kimmel Live! in the near future and issued this vague word salad of an explanation: "We made a decision last week to preempt Jimmy Kimmel Live! following what ABC referred to as Mr. Kimmel’s ‘ill-timed and insensitive’ comments at a critical time in our national discourse. We stand by that decision pending assurance that all parties are committed to fostering an environment of respectful, constructive dialogue in the markets we serve. In the meantime, we note that Jimmy Kimmel Live! will be available nationwide on multiple Disney-owned streaming products, while our stations will focus on continuing to produce local news and other programming relevant to their respective markets."
Mentioning the Disney-owned streaming platforms makes me think Nexstar might be angling to convince ABC to allow it to keep Kimmel off its airwaves while retaining affiliate rights to the remainder of ABC's programming.
4) What is the endgame for Sinclair?
Sinclair previously said it wouldn’t bring back Kimmel’s show until the host issues an apology and donated to Charlie Kirk’s conservative organization, Turning Point USA. And indeed, Sinclair has announced its stations won't be airing the show on Tuesday, although it is "continuing talks" with Disney.
But there are a lot of moving parts here. One issue is that while the affiliate deal between Sinclair and ABC does allow for a small number of preemptions, that exemption will end pretty quickly. Then if Sinclair continues to refuse to air the show, it will be in breach of contract. And I suspect both sides don't want to see that happen.
5) How much money will Disney lose if a number of stations aren't carrying Jimmy Kimmel Live!?
To a certain extent, that number is unknowable without having an idea of how many stations will preempt the show. But to give you an idea of the money involved, advertising industry analyst iSpot estimates the 2024 advertising revenue for the show was somewhere in the range of $70-75 million. Which makes it ABC's tenth best drive of revenue, just behind The View. That doesn't include revenue from the YouTube channel or other digital products.
It's also worth noting that because the demos for the show tend to be younger than ABC's primetime audience, the advertisers for the show tend to be ones looking for the hipper, more affluent audience - Apple, Amazon, Target, Starbucks, Uber Eats. ABC also saves 12% of the show's ad availabilities to promote other ABC and Disney products. And the Kimmel audience isn't easily replicated elsewhere on the network.
6) Why doesn't ABC just drop the Sinclair stations and find replacements?
Oy. This issue is so much more complicated than you think it is.
One of the reasons why major station groups like Nexstar and Sinclair exist is that they believe their reach makes it easier to negotiate both with cable and satellite companies as well as any digital live TV channel platform. Under current law, to carry those local stations, TV providers must come to an agreement on what is called retransmission rights. That number used to be based on a flat rate per subscriber. But in recent years, that number has become increasingly complex with factors like signal footprint, carrier penetration, and reverse compensation now frequently included in retransmission consent agreements.
Having a major broadcast affiliation makes the station worth more to advertisers and in carriage agreements. So dropping a network affiliation isn't done lightly. In fact, it's pretty much a worst-case scenario.
The situation is no better for ABC. In the best of circumstances, replacing dozens of stations across the country could take months, if not years. And it's even more challenging when discussing Sinclair. Because many of their stations are in smaller markets where they also own multiple other stations. Which it means that it's likely ABC might be shut out of many smaller markets for awhile.
And if local station groups are dependant on network affiliations to drive advertising and retransmission fees, broadcast networks are increasingly dependant on money they claw back from local affiliate stations. So-called reverse compensation is where local broadcast stations pay the national network for the right to affiliate with them. This is a fairly recent change from the old model where networks paid affiliate stations to carry their programming. It's a controversial topic in the industry and recently Brendan Carr threatened to examine the practice, which he described as "threatening local stations." But it's a growing revenue stream for broadcast networks and any widespread change in station affiliates will complicate those payments.
There is also another factor for ABC to consider in this discussion. Some of its sports rights deal - like the one with the NFL - guaranteed the league a certain audience reach. And losing a number of affiliates could trigger penalty payments to the sports leagues.
7) What will the reaction be from Donald Trump and other conservatives?
I am only half joking when I say it's almost impossible to predict the reaction of conservatives to Kimmel's return. It's still early, but a number of influential online conservatives are arguing the FCC should continue to push to get Kimmel fired. But legally, that's almost impossible to do directly. So...?
8) Will Brendan Carr and the FCC target other ABC programs?
But gut says yes, and in fact Carr has already said that he is considering looking at The View and whether its speech is protected. I suspect that this issue will come down to how this return by Kimmel is seen by President Trump. If he sees it somehow as a win, he'll push Carr to expand his investigations. But if it's seen as a win for opponents, Carr might move on to easier targets. Such as Seth Myers.
9) Will there be an impact on the planned ESPN acquisition of the NFL Network?
In theory, while the deal requires FCC approval, the only determining factor is supposed to be whether it creates a monopoly issue. But fears that the government would hold up the deal for some unspecified reason until ABC gave in somehow was one of the reasons why Disney and ABC moved to quickly to suspend Jimmy Kimmel. So will these moves ultimately hurt the chances of approval or will there be grumbling followed by a reluctant approval?
10) How will this affect subscriber numbers at Disney+and Hulu?
We'll know a bit about the short-term impact when Disney reports its Q3 2025 earnings numbers. But the company had previously announced that Q3 2025 will be the last time it reports Hulu and Disney+ subscriber numbers. So the impact will be a lot more difficult to assess accurately moving forward.
There is also a lot of churn going on connected to the launch of Disney's revamped ESPN app. Disney is now offering aggressively priced bundles of ESPN, Disney+ and Hulu for $29.99 a month for a year. Compared to the normal price of $49.97 per month if purchased separately. That deal might tempt some people who have recently canceled one or more of the services. But Disney also hopes to lock as many subscribers as possible into a one-year deal before the new ESPN - Fox 1 sports bundle is available early next month.
TWEET OF THE DAY
ODDS AND SODS
* MTV has cancelled Catfish: The Series after nine seasons.
* The new comedy Boots premieres Thursday, October 9th on Netflix. Here is a first video look at the series. And here is the official logline: "Boots is a one-hour comedic drama that delivers an irreverent, off-beat take on the coming-of-age story. Set in the tough, unpredictable world of the 1990s US Marine Corps—when being gay in the military was still illegal—the series follows directionless, closeted Cameron Cope (Miles Heizer) and his best friend Ray McAffey (Liam Oh), the son of a decorated Marine, as they join a diverse group of recruits. Together, this ensemble navigates the literal and metaphorical landmines of boot camp, forging unlikely bonds and discovering their true selves in an environment designed to push them to their limits. With sharp wit and plenty of heart, Boots is about friendship, resilience, and finding your place in the world—even when that world seems determined to keep you in line or leave you behind."
* The comedy special Mo Amer: Wild World, will premiere Tuesday, October 28th on Netflix.
* Season two of The Swift Effect, NBCUniversal Local’s docuseries about Taylor Swift’s economic and brand power, will premiere Thursday, October 2nd on Peacock and the NBC Local FAST Channel.
WHAT'S COMING TOMORROW
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23RD:
* Alien: Earth Season One Finale (FX)
* Bodyguard Of Lies (Paramount+)
* Clemente (History)
* Crime Scene Zero Series Premiere (Netflix)
* Cristela Alonzo: Upper Classy (Netflix)
* Doc Season Two Premiere (Fox)
* Hometown Rescue Season Premiere (Discovery)
* Hustlers Gamblers Crooks (Discovery)
* Murder In A Small Town Season Two Premiere (Fox)
* The Devil Is Busy (HBO)
* The Lowdown Series Premiere (FX)
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24TH:
* Help! I Wrecked My House Season Premiere (HGTV)
* Hotel Costiera Series Premiere (Prime Video)
* Law & Order Toronto: Criminal Intent Series Premiere (The CW)
* Marvel Zombies (Disney+)
* Next Gen Chef Season One Finale (Food)
* Shark Tank Season Seventeen Premiere (ABC)
* Slow Horses Season Five Season Premiere (Apple TV+)
* Survivor Season Forty Nine Premiere (CBS)
* The Change (Britbox)
* The Golden Bachelor Season Two Premiere (ABC)
* The Floor Season Four Premiere (Fox)
* The Guest Series Premiere (Netflix)
* The Terminal List: Dark Wolf Season One Finale (Prime Video)
SEE YOU EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING!
Too Much TV: 10 Unanswered Questions About The Return Of 'Jimmy Kimmel Live!'
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- By Rick Ellis
