Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Friday, December 5th, 2025:
IF I WAS NIKKI FINKE, MY HEADLINE WOULD SCREAM 'TOLD YA!'
As I have been predicting for several weeks, Netflix seems to have the upper hand in the effort to acquire parts of Warner Bros. Discovery and Thursday evening it was announced the two companies had entered into an exclusive negotiation period in hopes of finalizing a deal that would sell the studio and streaming side of Netflix.
We are a long way from a deal actually being made, but as Paramount Skydance's letter to WBD today suggests, Netflix has the inside position right now in the negotiations. The truth is that Comcast was always an extreme longshot, but Paramount Skydance's David Ellison had been counting on his close relationship with the Trump Administration to make his company seem like the only real option. And that argument has been a regular feature in reporting from friendly journalists such as Charles Gasparino.
But that argument overlooked a couple of things. While Ellison has a close relationship with Trump, Netflix executives have carefully cultivated a friendly stance towards President Trump. Albeit it mostly behind the scenes. And for all of Ellison's talk about potential problems with a Netflix/WBD merger receiving approval in the United States, it's also the case that a successful Paramount bid would face a great deal of scrutiny in Europe, because of the overlapping international footprints of the two companies.
And another challenge for Paramount is that according to sources I spoke with tonight, Paramount's offer for WBD came in substantially below Netflix's offer. I heard from several people it was about $2 a share less than Netflix's offer sheet, although I haven't been able to confirm that.
I continue to argue that if you want Warner Brothers to continue as a functional movie studio, then you should be rooting for Netflix to close this deal. This is Netflix's only real opportunity to acquire a turnkey theatrical business. Which is something that is very attractive to the company because it provides another pillar of revenue along with a full-blown existing studio facility, a thriving licensing business as well as a TV production arm.
IT'S THE MOST RELIABLE KIND OF CLICKBAIT
Longtime readers of this newsletter know that I frequently find myself pushing back against the conventional wisdom of the entertainment news media - especially when it comes to the streaming business. The industry is filled with a lot of people who are hammers and everything they see in the streaming business looks like a nail. And if anything was likely to turn me into the industry's version of The Joker, it would be reading the same mistaken take again and again.
For instance, the idea that Netflix would be better off if it gave it's highest-profile original movies theatrical releases first. Apparently because Netflix executives are morons and don't know their business as well as you do. Now I don't agree with a number of the decisions made by Netflix executives (don't get me started on Tudum), but I think one thing anyone who has ever had a business relationship with Netflix will tell you is that they are not known for leaving money on the table. No matter how they feel about the person they are negotiating with.
The working theory for why Netflix doesn't do wider theatrical releases is that executives such as Ted Sarandos don't believe in the theatrical business and have such a dislike for the idea that they are willing to pass up the opportunity to make hundreds of millions of dollars in "extra" revenue. Yeah, that sounds just like Netflix.
I have written about this issue a lot over the years, most recently back in September when I talked about the idea of "availability bias" and how preexisting feelings about the theatrical business can cause problems when you try and apply those lessons to a very different business model:
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman coined the phrase "availability bias" in the 1970s and it's a useful idea to be familiar with when discussing the streaming video industry. According to the duo, availability bias occurs when people make judgments or decisions based on the information that is most readily available. For instance, news stories about lottery winners and their lavish lifestyles can lead many people to purchase lottery tickets even if they can't afford them. That's because they believe that because of the news coverage, their chances of winning are much higher than the actual statistics bear out.
Availability bias is a common problem when discussing the major trends that impact the streaming video business. It's a relatively new industry, and many of the people working in it as well as writing about it are much more comfortable with the traditional rules of the entertainment business. We often see what we want to see based on our experience or industry conventional wisdom. And that can lead people down some ill-advised paths.
I highly recommend reading the entire piece again. Because it's a concept that will play out in today's frustrating rant.
I truly enjoy reading pieces written by someone who doesn't agree with me. Because I am certainly as guilty as anyone to battling with my own version of availability bias. And more than once I have changed my mind after reading a well-constructed counterpoint.
But there also some situations in which I try not to engage because it's pointless. If someone is going to dismiss my point of view with a smug "oh, you just don't understand how things work," then at some point I try to not respond even indirectly. I have a 20-year-old son, so I already have plenty of conversations in my life in which I feel as I am being ignored.
Still, there are times when I get so wound up that I can't help myself. Because I feel as if I don't speak up, then this wrong-headed argument will sit there as another example of the conventional wisdom.
I have a lot of admiration for what the folks at The Ankler have built and I think it's healthy for the entertainment news industry that there are larger outlets able to push against the often self-dealing trades. But the business model of The Ankler also depends on the industry spending a lot of money on subscriptions as well as being willing to participate in various revenue-enhancing live events. So it helps to publish some pieces that track what the industry wants to hear.
And high on that list of topics is Netflix and its approach to theatrical releases. Hollywood creatives at all levels hate their decision not to give their streaming originals a full theatrical release and writing pieces that argue the streamer is making a big mistake is like some version of Hollywood cat nip. Even if the premise of the pieces is flawed.
I try not to write too much about the Entertainment Strategy Guy's work at The Ankler because we strongly disagree with each other on this issue and at this point, we're just wasting each other's time. But he posted a piece today that is so infuriating that I feel obliged to address it. In large part because I know it will be passed around a lot in the industry and seen as proof that the conventional wisdom is correct.
The piece has a subhed entitled "Top straight-to-TV original films could have changed 2025 with a detour to the theater — I've got the numbers to prove it."
I honestly could spend 3,000 words pushing back against his premise, but I wanted to highlight this graphic, which he uses to prove his point. He puts a list of 2025's top streaming movies side by side with a list of the year's top grossing theatrical films. And decides that you can use the comparison to extrapolate how much money these streaming originals would have grossed with a theatrical release:
I could write 500 more words about this comparison and how nuts it is. But if you know anything about the theatrical and/or streaming business, I'll let you come to your own conclusion.
But I will pass along these set of explanations from ESG, which ultimately gives away the real point of the piece:
Note: I chose only one film that grossed over $100 million at the box office, and I still found nearly $960 million for just the North American box office. In fact, I mostly chose films that underperformed domestically. I mean, Madame Web had nearly the same U.S. viewership as The Electric State, implying the latter could have earned at least the same at the box office. Interestingly, the traditional studios (the ones most pressured by profit-loss concerns) have mostly eschewed straight-to-streaming films with a handful of notable Hulu and Peacock exceptions.
Of course, yes, some of that potential $958 million may have pulled from other films releasing in theaters, so it wouldn’t be entirely additive. That caveat aside, we had quite a few dead weekends throughout the year, and I think they would have been offset by getting more customers back in the moviegoing habit.
It sounds as if he is making the argument that Netflix should release its biggest movies to theaters because it would help the theatrical business. And then tries to cobble together a financial framework for making that case.
I don't know how many times people have to hear this before it sinks in, but it is not Netflix's responsibility to boost the health of the theatrical business. The theatrical business has a very specific set of economic parameters and they are very different than the business model of streaming originals.
I realize there are few things more likely to be clicked on than a story arguing Netflix should be providing more streaming movies with full theatrical releases. But just because a story is what a lot of readers want to see doesn't make it accurate.
TWEET OF THE DAY
WHAT'S COMING TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5TH:
* A Christmas Cookbook (Lifetime)
* Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: The Last Straw (Disney+)
* Jay Kelly (Netflix)
* Jingle All The Way To Love (Lifetime)
* Owning Manhattan Season Premiere (Netflix)
* Reflection In A Dead Diamond (Shudder)
* Selling Manhattan Season Premiere (Netflix)
* Sicilia Express Series Premiere (Netflix)
* Spartacus: House Of Asher Series Premiere (Starz)
* The First Snow Of Fraggle Rock (Apple TV)
* The New Yorker At 100 (Netflix)
* The Night My Dad Saved Christmas 2 (Netflix)
* 2025 National Christmas Tree Lighting Ceremony (Great American Family)
* Twelve Dates 'Til Christmas (Hallmark)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6TH:
* Cranberries And Carols (Great American Family)
* Deck The Hallways (Lifetime)
* Merry Missed Connection (Lifetime)
* Paws In The City (The CW)
* She's Making A List (Hallmark)
* The Christmas Showdown (OWN)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7TH:
* A Christmas Murder Mystery (UP tv)
* Mistletoe At The Manor (Great American Family)
* Single On The 25th (Hallmark)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 8TH:
* Dance Moms: A New Era Season Two Premiere (Hulu)
SEE YOU EARLY MONDAY MORNING!